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Faktor Fundamental Dibalik Harga Minyak

by | Mar 1, 2018 | Artikel, Fundamental Artikel | 263 comments

Harga tertinggi harga minyak tahun ini berada dilevel $82 per barel yang diciptakan akhir Oktober lalu, menandai pemulihan sekitar 150% dari harga terendah di $32.40 yang disentuh Desember tahun lalu.

Harga minyak telah menurun tipis dibawah level $80 akhir-akhir ini, sekitar setengah dari rekor tertinggi yang diciptakan tahun lalu didekat $150 per barel.

Berikut ini adalah faktor utama bearish dan bullih di pasar minyak.

Pemulihan Permintaan Yang Lambat
Banyak pihak memprediksi, termasuk OPEC, International Energy Agency dan Departemen Informasi Energi, mengekspektasi tingkat permintaan bahan bakan akan meningkat tahun depan.

Namun tingkat pertumbuhan akan lambat, dibandingkan dengan kontraksi tajam dalam konsumsi bahan bakar yang disebabkan krisis keuangan. Permintaan untuk minyak OPEC diestimasi akan tetap rendah.

Persediaan
Lemahnya permintaan telah menghasilkan tingkat persediaan yang besar, yang menghasilkan struktur contango di pasar minyak, yang artinya minyak untuk kontrak yang lebih awal lebih murah daripada kontrak yang lebih panjang.

Meningkatnya persediaan secara khusus ditandai persediaan bahan bakar distilasi, yang termasuk bahan bakar diesel dan pemanas didalamnya, dan telah mencapai level tertinggi untuk 3 dekade terakhir.

Analis telah mengatakan bahwa musim dingin yang kuat kemungkinan tidak akan membuat persediaan distilasi kembali turun dibawah rata-rata.

Sebagai tambaha sudah meningginya penyimpanan bahan bakar didaratan, pelaku pasar telah memperhitungkan persediaan yang mengapung di lautan, dimana telah mengalami peningkatan sejak April lalu.

Perusahaan pengangkut minyak mengatakan bahwa volume produk minyak yang disimpan di laut telah meningkat lebih dari 90 juta barel.

Minyak ini disimpan di kapal tanker dibanding didaratan seiring dengan murahnya biaya pengangkutan dan struktur pasar, yang artinya mereka dapat mendapatkan keuntungan dari beli sekarang dan jual nanti.

Bahan bakar distilasi masih berada dalam contango yang dalam, dimana kontrak terkini lebih murah daripada kontrak yang lebih panjang, sedangkan contango di pasar futures minyak tidak sampai satu dolar.

OPEC
Dihadapkan pada naiknya persediaan dan lemahnya permintaan, diakhir tahun lalu OPEC mengatakan telah setuju untuk mengurangi suplai sebanyak 4.2 juta barel per hari dibandingkan dengan produksi September sebelumnya.

Tingkat disiplin produksi yang tinggi diawal tahun ini, tingkat pencapaian target produksi OPEC sebesar 80% dari persetujuan pengurangan suplai.

Sejak itu telah turun ke level 60%, menurut estimasi analis tetapi walaupun produksi telah naik secara informal, tidak ada perubahan resmi dari target produksi, menjadi salah satu periode terpanjang untuk stabilitas produksi OPEC.

 

Pada pertemuan terahir mereka September lalu, OPEC mengetahui bahwa level persediaan setara dengan suplai 60 hari kedepan yang lebih tinggi dari 55 hari yang dianggap layak oleh banyak pihak.

Tetapi menteri perminyakan Arab Saudi, Ali al-Naimi yakin akan adanya pemulihan ekonomi yang bisa cukup untuk memberikan sokongan pada pasar dalam menghadapi tingginya persediaan.

Ia juga telah mengatakan bahwa ekonomi dunia telah siap dengan harga minyak di $80 per barel, sebuah level dimana negara penghasil minyak mengatakan bahwa harga tersebut bisa diterima oleh konsumen dan bisa menghasilkan investasi untuk produksi baru.

Rally Aset Silang
Penurunan tajam Desember lalu ke level harga terendah untuk lima tahun terakhir koinsiden dengan adanya deleveraging yang besar oleh beberapa pelaku pasar.

Investor keluar dari minyak dan aset beresiko lainnya dan dalam beberapa kejadian pindah ke dalam aset yang lebih aman seperti emas dan dolar.

Besarnya jumlah likuiditas yang disediakan oleh bank sentral, respon terhadap program stimulus ekonomi pemerintah, telah memicu adanya rally pada sejumlah jenis aset, termasuk minyak, yang sementara ini kehilangan nilai sebagai diversitor portfolio.

Harga minyak merangkan naik ke level tertinggi tahun ini beriringan dengan kenaikan pada pasar saham yang juga melonjak naik.

Pada saat yang bersamaan, dolar telah melemah terhadap sejumlah mata uang utama, sebagian disebabkan oleh rendahnya suku bunga yang memicu investor untuk mencari return yang lebih tinggi ditempat lain.

Dolar yang lemah bisa menjadi dorongan pada komoditi berdenominasi dolar, yang menjadi relatif lebih murah dibanding komoditi bukan dolar.

Emas, secara khusus, telah terdongkrak oleh dolar yang lemah dan terus mencetak rekor baru. Analis mengatakan bahwa dolar masih bisa terus melemah.

Regulasi
Sejak kenaikan harga minyak ke rekor tertinggi di tahun lalu dan krisis keuangan yang terjadi telah membuat wacana untuk adanya regulasi yang lebih ketat.

Badan pengawas perdagangan komoditi AS, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), sedang mengajukan sebuah proposal diawal Desember ini untuk membatasi posisi perdagangan komoditi.

Beberapa analis mengatakan bahwa hal ini bisa mendatangkan dampak bearish pada pasar minyak.

Pihak yang berwenang mengatakan bahwa pembatasan posisi ini ditujukan untuk membatasi konsentrasi, daripada spekulasi dan bahwa imbas harga dari spekulasi sangat sulit dibuktikan.

Resiko Politik
Dengan adanya pengurangan kapasitas produksi setelah pengurangan produksi OPEC dan naiknya persediaan setelah berkurangnya permintaan, kegugupan mengenai potensi gangguan suplai adalah minimal.

Pasar minyak terus mengawasi perkembangan anggota OPEC, Iran, yang sedang bersitegang dengan dunia barat dalam persoalan nuklir dan ancaman pada sangsi AS. Iran selalu mengatakan bahwa ambisi nuklirnya terbatas hanya untuk listrik.

Tetapi agensi nuklir PBB mengatakan khawatir terhadap pengayaan uranium Iran yang bisa berarti ditujukan untuk menyembunyikan aktivitas nuklir lainnya.

Kekerasan pemberontak di Nigeria, yang juga anggota OPEC telah memaksa adanya penutupan fasilitas produksi ribuan barel minyak per hari.

Cina
Kenaikan permintaan yang berhubungan dengan rally harga ke rekor tahun lalu dipicu oleh adanya booming ekonomi di Cina, yang menurut data IEA, di 2003 berhasil mengalahkan Jepang sebagai negara pengguna minyak kedua terbesar setelah AS.

Ketika sebagian belahan dunia masuk ke dalam resesi, pertumbuhan ekonomi Cina tetap positif. Bersama dengan India, mereka diestimasi akan terus mendorong permintaan minyak, tetapi analis mengatakan bahwa hal ini hanya bersifat tambahan, dengan permintaan di negara maju akan tetap stagnan.

Rekor harga minyak yang tercipta tahun lalu bisa secara permanen menghilangkan beberapa permintaan dan membantu keinginan mencari alternatif bahan bakar ramah lingkungan.

Adanya kenaikan harga yang dipicu oleh meningkatnya konsumsi di Asia, bisa dalam konteks dimana ekonomi dunia masih sakit, membatasi kenaikan pada konsumsi bahan bakar, khususnya di AS, dimana konsumen bensin dianggap sangat sensitif pada harga.

Investasi Produksi Baru
Perusahaan minyak dan juga anggora OPEC mengatakan untuk memastikan investasi pada produksi baru, harga minyak dikisaran $75-$80 per barel dibutuhkan.

Beberapa proyek terhenti dan tertunda karena kurangnya kredit, walaupun perusahaan minyak besar mengatakan akan tetap melanjutkan investasi dan OPEC mengatakan rally pada harga minyak telah membuat beberapa investasi dilanjutkan kembali.

IEA dan pengamat lainnya telah mengatakan bahwa kurangnya investasi pada produksi baru bisa berarti harga akan rally tajam ketika ekonomi dunia pulih yang akan menstimulasi pertumbuhan.

Untuk tahun depan, suplai diprediksi akan naik dan meningkatkan produksi negara non OPEC akan mengurangi permintaan pada minyak OPEC.

produksi dari Rusia, penghasil minyak non OPEC, telah meningkat diatas 10 juta barel per hari tahun ini, membuatnya menjadi produsen minyak terbesar di dunia, walaupun Saudi Arabia tetap menjadi eksportir minyak terbesar di dunia dan telah mengurangi produksi sesuai dengan kebijakan OPEC.

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