(MahadanaLearning) Memiliki emas tentu belum kehilangan daya tariknya di mata investor. Status safe haven logam kuning yang terus ditegaskan karena banyak masalah yang sedang dihadapi ekonomi global – pertumbuhan rendah, utang publik yang besar dan pengangguran yang tinggi – masih belum mereda sejak resesi ekonomi. Secara keseluruhan, logam mulia terus mendapat dukungan dalam portofolio investor baik ritel maupun institusional. Support baru-baru ini mendapat dorongan lain dari tingkatan lain investor – elit miliarder manajer hedge fund.
Dengan sekali lagi begitu banyak berbondong-bondong ke emas sebagai safe haven seiring tebing fiskal AS berlangsung, pertanyaan besar bagi investor adalah apakah mereka harus mengikutinya atau tidak.
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Status utama emas sebagai penyimpan nilai dan safe haven belum hilang pada level elit investasi. Pengumuman terbaru dari otoritas bursa berjangka AS menunjukkan bahwa hedge fund miliarder telah menyelam ke logam mulia sebagai cara untuk mempersiapkan hasil buruk dari perdebatan tebing fiskal di Amerika Serikat serta pertumbuhan global yang lebih rendah pada tahun 2013 .
John Paulson membuat keuntungan besar pada tahun 2007-2008, ketika ia benar bertaruh melawan subprime mortgage. Posisi tersebut membuat Advantage Plus Hedge Fund miliknya berhasil meraup return 591% dan membantu mendorong dirinya menjadi sorotan media. Sejak saat itu, Paulson telah menumpuk emas dan saham pertambangan emas pada kecepatan tinggi. Para fund manager mengangkat sahamnya di saham ETF SPDR Gold sebesar 26% pada kuartal kedua 2012 menjadi 21,8 juta saham. Pada kira-kira 66 metrik ton emas, yang membuatnya pemegang tunggal terbesar dari dana tersebut. ETF, bersama dengan saham di tambang AngloGold Ashanti membentuk 38,7% dari portofolio hedge fund-nya.
Tidak mau kalah, George Soros dan institusinya meningkatkan investasi mereka di SPDR Gold Trust sebesar 49% menjadi 1,32 juta saham, sementara Louis Moore Bacon mengakuisisi 1,8 juta saham di Sprott Physical Gold Trust pada kuartal terakhir. Gema ini ditambah oleh manajer investasi lain seperti Julian Robertson yang masuk ke dalam logam kuning, ekuitas pertambangan dan produk exchange traded fund yang melacak emas. Bahkan raja obligasi PIMCO, Bill Gross, telah mendesak investor untuk mulai membeli logam mulia.
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Mengingat bahwa begitu banyak fund manager menonjol dan investor superstar sekali lagi berbondong-bondong ke emas, pertanyaan masih sama apakah investor ritel harus mengikuti langkah mereka atau tidak. Jawabannya tidak mungkin sesederhana ya atau tidak.
Pertama, banyak dari para manajer tersebut telah masuk ke dalam logam kuning sebagai bentuk dari polis asuransi. Dalam sebuah wawancara dengan Newsweek, George Soros berpikir bahwa situasi ekonomi global saat ini lebih buruk daripada selama Great Depression seiring “kerusuhan di jalan-jalan kota-kota Amerika yang tak terelakkan.” Sementara sebagian besar analis dan pakar tidak berpikir kekacauan total akan terjadi di jalanan AS, status safe haven dari logam mulia tentu memberikan investor sebuah pemikiran kemungkinan. Skenario yang lebih nyata akan berada di tebing fiskal, dan emas lagi-lagi menyediakan polis asuransi terhadap ketidakpastiannya.
Namun, bahkan tanpa tebing atau Armageddon fiskal AS, ledakan langkah stimulus di seluruh wilayah global, mata uang dunia dan melambatnya pertumbuhan pasar berkembang dapat membantu mendorong emas lebih tinggi. Manajer miliarder institusi mungkin hanya membuat posisi makro pada kenaikan harga jangka panjang. Jika Anda yakin bahwa kemungkinan salah satu dari situasi ini bisa menjadi kenyataan, kemudian membeli emas melalui metode-metode investasi yang ada menjadi masuk akal.
Akan tetapi, jika Anda setuju dengan salah satu miliarder terbesar di dunia – Warren Buffett – dimana emas adalah benar-benar omong kosong, maka penurunan baru-baru ini di saham karena bencana tebing fiskal AS harus dilihat sebagai kesempatan membeli. Ada banyak bisnis besar yang membayar dividen yang besar – emas adalah sesuatu yang tidak melakukannya – yang saat ini diperdagangkan dengan harga murah.
Dengan miliarder seperti Soros, Paulson dan Rogers masuk ke emas lagi, pertanyaan bagi investor umum apakah hal tersebut harus kita ikuti. Semua masalah yang dihadapi ekonomi global tentu membuat alasan besar untuk membeli logam mulia. Investor hanya perlu membuat pikiran mereka pada seberapa kuat mereka percaya terhadap kondisi makro ekonomi akan atau tidak akan memburuk selama beberapa tahun ke depan sebelum melompat masuk ke pasar emas.
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