Mungkin kata ‘resesi’ termasuk salah satu kata yang dapat membuat ahli ekonomi merasa takut. Tetapi jangan artikan ketakutan tersebut sebagai sebuah ketakutan yang akan membuat mereka bersembunyi dibawah tempat tidur
Mungkin kata ‘resesi’ termasuk salah satu kata yang dapat membuat ahli ekonomi merasa takut. Tetapi jangan artikan ketakutan tersebut sebagai sebuah ketakutan yang akan membuat mereka bersembunyi dibawah tempat tidur. Ekonomi yang dalam keadaan sehat, masyarakat akan merasa bahagia dengan keadaan pendapatannya dan banyak hal menyenangkan yang dapat mereka rasakan. Namun jika terjadi resesi, mungkin inilah kondisi ekonomi yang sedang ‘tidak enak badan’ dimana pendapatan masyarakat akan mengalami penurunan.
Ketika ekonomi sedang turun kinerjanya, anda mungkin akan mendengar dan melihat berita mengenai melempemnya sektor properti, peningkatan jumlah pengangguran, dan menyusutnya total produksi ekonomi. Apakah hal ini akan mempengaruhi anda sebagai investor? Apa hubungannya sektor properti dan menurunnya produksi ekonomi dengan portfolio investasi anda? Indikator-indikator ini adalah gambaran umum, yang menentukan kekuatan sebuah ekonomi dan apakah kita sedang dalam periode resesi atau ekspansi.
Fase Siklus Bisnis
Untuk dapat melihat kondisi kesehatan ekonomi, sebagai langkah awal kita perlu melihat dengan seksama siklus bisnis secara keseluruhan. Secara umum, siklus bisnis terbagi menjadi 4 periode (bagian) aktivitas selama beberapa tahun yang berbeda. Fase-fase ini dapat memiliki perbedaan substansial dalam jangka waktunya, tetapi saling berhubungan dalam keseluruhan aktivitas ekonomi.
- Puncak : Ini bukan merupakan awal dari sebuah siklus bisnis, tetapi disinilah kita akan mulai membahasnya. Ketika berada di puncak, ekonomi berjalan dalam kecepatan dan kekuatan penuh. Jumlah pekerja berada di atau dekat dengan level maksimal, output gross domestic bruto (GDP) dalam batas atas dan tingkat pendapatan mengalami peningkatan. Pada fase ini, harga cenderung bergerak naik karena inflasi, namum usaha dan investor dapat menikmati masa-masa senang dan sejahtera.
- Resesi : Sebuah peribahasa lama mengatakan ‘yang naik harus turun’ dan ‘roda terus berputar, ada kalanya diatas dan ada kalanya dibawah’. Dan hal tersebut juga terjadi di ekonomi. Setelah mengalami masa pertumbuhan yang baik, pendapatan dan jumlah pekerja yang dapat diserap oleh ekonomi mulai menurun. Dengan sulitnya merubah upah dan harga barang-barang pada sebuah ekonomi, biasanya dua hal tersebut akan tetap berada pada level yang sama ketika ekonomi sedang berada di puncak kecuali resesi ekonomi yang terjadi berkepanjangan. Hasilnya adalah pertumbuhan negatif pada ekonomi.
- Depresi : Pada fase ini ekonomi, yang digambarkan dengan total produksi dan jumlah pekerja, sedang berada di dasar penurunan dan tetap berada dilevel tersebut menunggu siklus bisnis selanjutnya untuk mulai bergulir.
- Ekspansi/pulih : Ketika ekonomi sedang berusaha untuk pulih, ekonomi mulai tumbuh dan bergerak menjauh dari dasar di fase depresi. Jumlah pekerja, produksi dan pendapatan mengalami peningkatan dan iklim bisnis mulai membaik.
Tetapi memang tidak semua siklus bisnis melewati ke emapt fase terebut. Sebagai contoh, ketika sebuah ekonomi mengalami resesi ganda, ekonomi akan mengalami resesi lalu diikuti dengan adanya pemulihan singkat, dan resesi kembali tanpa pernah menyentuh fase puncak.
Resesi vs ekspansi
Banyak yang merartikan bahwa resesi itu adalah pertumbuhan negatif pada GDP selama dua kuartal berturut-turut. Definisi ini dapat memperlihatkan pergantian masa resesi dan ekspansi yang sering, karena ini banyak variasi lain yang digunakan untuk menciptakan metode perhitungan yang universal.
Biasanya ada sebuah lembaga pemerintah yang secara khusus memiliki kewenangan dalam menentukan kondisi ekonomi. Lembaga-lembaga ini memiliki defini terhadap resesi yang lebih komplit. Ada empat faktor utama dalam melihat kondisi kesehatan sebuah ekonomi: jumlah pekerja, pendapatan individual, volume penjualan sektor manufaktur dan ritel, dan produksi industri. Dengan melihat keempat indikator tersebut, ahli ekonomi berharap dapat melihat kondisi kesehatan ekonomi secara keseluruhan dan menentukan apakah ekonomi sedang dalam keadaan resesi atau ekspansi.
Bagian tersulit ketika sedang berusaha menentukan kondisi perekonomian adalah kebanyakan indikator ekonomi tersebut termasuk lagging indicator (ketinggalan) atau coincident (tidak sengaja) daripada sebuah leading indicator (mendahului). Ketika sebuah indikator ‘lagging’, hal ini berarti bahwa perubahan pada indikator tersebut terjadi setelah adanya perubahan nyata pada perekonomian. Lagging indicator emang dapat mengkonfirmasi resesinya sebuah ekonomi, tetapi hal tersebut tidak akan banyak membantu untuk memprediksi apa yang akan terjadi dimasa yang akan datang.
Adakah artinya untuk anda?
Mengerti mengenai siklus bisnis tidak akan banyak berguna jika tidak dapat memperbaiki kinerja portfolio investasi. Apa yang dilakukan oleh investor ketika terjadi resesi? Sayangnya tidak ada jawaban mudah. Hal ini sangat bergantung pada situasi dan apakah tipe investasi anda.
Pertama, ingat bahwa ketika pasar sedang menurun (bear market) bukan berarti tidak ada cara untuk menghasilkan uang. Beberapa investor memanfaatkan penurunan pasar dengan short selling. Masalahnya, teknik ini memiliki karakter yang unuk dan mungkin lebih baik digunakan oleh investor yang lebih berpengalaman.
Jenis investor lain ketika terjadi resesi adalah menganggap hal tersebut seperti diskon pada pusat-pusat perbelanjaan. Biasanya disebut value investing, teknik ini melihat penurunan harga saham bukan sebagai sebuah kegagalan, tetapi sebagai sebuah tawaran yang siap untuk diambil. Dasarnya adalah masa-masa ekonomi yang baik nantinya akan datang juga, investor yang berbasis nilai ini menggunakan penurunan pasar sebagai sebuah kesempatan membeli, memiliki saham dari perusahaan berkualitas dengan harga yang murah.
Ada satu tipe investor lagi, yang biasanya tidak terlihat atau menghilang pada waktu resesi, yaitu investor jangka panjang. Mereka membeli saham dan menyimpan saham tersebut untuk jangka waktu puluhan tahun (20-30 tahun). Namun bnyak dari kita tidak dapat menyimpan investasi selama itu dan banyak investor tidak memiliki banyak keberanian untuk melakukan short selling. Nah, pilihlah gaya investasi yang cocok dan sesuai dengan keadaan anda sendiri. Anda dapat mendiversifikasikan investasi anda ke obligasi, pasar uang, properti atau lainnya.
Resesi adalah bagian normal dari sebuah siklus bisnis dan ekonomi, namun media biasanya akan bersikap seolah-olah langit akan runtuh jika terindikasi adanya resesi. Apa yang terbaik bagi kita disaat resesi merupakan keputusan individual dan bagaimanapun, jika kita bisa memahami siklus bisnis yang sedang terjadi kita mungkin memiliki peluang untuk selamat dari resesi.
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